S-059 - Concept Selection in Field Development
Concept Selection is where the technical concept for the project is chosen. This is one of the most significant decision points for any project, which cannot later be reversed. Alternative concepts will have different strengths and weaknesses, and rarely will one concept be best in all respects. A careful trade off of pros and cons against project value drivers is required to select the concept that delivers the greatest overall value to the project. Furthermore, the selected concept must be robust against the uncertainties which will still be present.
This service is designed to guide selection of the optimum concept. It should be performed when the economic feasibility of the project has been proven, and the range of possible concepts has been reduced to a shortlist by eliminating obvious non-contenders.
The selection of the concept is carried out in two workshop, and each discipline must be represented. The workshops are run by an experienced facilitator. There will be a large number of options, and so a very structured workflow is used:
- List key decisions remaining in a decision register. Typically there should be 12 to 20.
- Make a decision sequence and target date
- Do the staff work for each decision, using Decision Quality tools.
- Further eliminate concepts based on decision results
When three or four concepts remain:
- Set value drivers and decision criteria
- Agree range of sensitivities and uncertainties
- Run forecast and economics for each concept
- Check economic sensitivities and robustness against Hi/Lo uncertainty outcomes
- Assess against decision criteria and propose selected concept.
- A Decision Register
- A Decision Quality tool
- A work plan for the staff work
- Economics for the remaining concepts
- Sensitivity analysis
- Robustness analysis against uncertainties
- Proposed selected concept
A 2 day workshop to kick off the decision staff work, and (later) a 2 day workshop to assemble the results, with the client development team, plus preparation and follow-up as required.
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Vincent BuschSr Consultant Upstream & Value Assurance Reviews
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