S-074 - Improved Predictability of Hand-over Dates
Introduction
By means of organizational engineering, execution risk is measured and managed, using an Agent Based Model, SimVision®, a proprietary modelling and simulation technology.
SimVision allows running simulations of organizational structures and project contracting plans. It reveals and quantifies hidden project pressures on schedules, cost, quality, and personnel. Decades of scientific research yield a robust and reliable model, build on project dynamics and people behaviours within large and complex projects.
Focus on: Substantiation of business cases, Contract approach/strategies, Tender optimization, Organisational design, Acceleration of the work and Testing phase.
Simulation makes it possible to test a variety of scenarios far in advance, while its outcomes create a better understanding between parties. The application of a standardized approach also ensures that the ranking of risks is less dependent on personal interests. This includes risk-avoiding behavior as a manifestation of such personal interest, while outcomes generates a steep learning curve.
Outcome with related added value
- Process Industry: predicted, four years in advance, a six-month delayed hand-over date on the conversion of a VLCC into an FPSO, equipped with related process equipment. Actual delay: 5 months, 3 weeks, and a couple of days. Estimated budget $1.0 bn.
- Mining: 7.5% Capex reduction via organizational engineering of EPC chain (APLNG/ $20bn onshore gas project).
- Civil Industry: recommended a 25% acceleration on the construction of a land tunnel (anonymized), with a budget of €0.5bn.
- Shipbuilding Industry: recommended a 20% acceleration on new to build oceangoing vessel (anonymized), with a € 165M budget.
- Heavy Industry: As part of large refurbishment program, reduced start-up time of Cold Mill; from >4 wks to < 1 wk (Tata Steel/ daily production value between € 0.5M and €1M).
Road map
What do we need, and how long does it take?
- One liaison person
- Org chart & Meeting schedule
- Schedule (level 2/3), resource loaded or with related budget per discipline
- Time commitment of the project team: around 6 hours (benchmark Tata Steel).
Deliverables
Compressed report, containing:
- The experiences of the project team in response to the demands of the project:
schedule, competences, contract type, stakeholders.
- Outcomes of simulated What-if scenarios used to improve project performance.
Want to read more
- Metaphore of Reynolds number (viscosity) on organisations: https://stacks.staford.edu/file/druid:jd174yc6371/TR138.pdf
- Using simulation to study, design, and invent organizations: https://www.jorgdesign.net/article/view/7016/6218
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